Forecasting the Employment Status of Persons with Hearing Impairment in Cameroon in Six Years: A GCE Ordinary Level Performance-Based Analysis

Abstract

Unemployment among persons with hearing impairment remains disproportionately high in Cameroon despite decades of disability-inclusion policy. This study forecasts the employment status of persons with hearing impairment in Cameroon over a six-year horizon, combining a longitudinal analysis of General Certificate of Education (GCE) Ordinary Level performance (2020-2025) with current global employment trends. Using examination records of candidates with hearing impairment, pass was defined as grades A, B, or C in at least four subjects; D, E, and U were fail grades. Results show an overall six-year pass rate of 34.5%, rising from a low of 20% in 2021 and 2023 to 75% in 2024, with English Language and History returning a 0% pass rate throughout, while Mathematics, Computer Science, and the sciences performed comparatively better. A linear trend projection, read cautiously given the small cohort, suggests continued improvement through 2032, but this alone is unlikely to translate into employment gains: nationally representative data show deaf adults employed at markedly lower rates than hearing adults, and Cameroon's disability unemployment rate sits far above the national average. The study concludes that without deliberate investment in sign-language-accessible technical and vocational pathways, assistive and AI-driven communication technologies, and inclusive employer practices, the forecasted academic gains will not close the employment gap by 2032. The article offers evidence-based counseling guidance for candidates with hearing impairment preparing for the GCE and policy recommendations for examination and employment authorities.